A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
